A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
